The X-Factor
In every NBA playoff series, there is that X-Factor. That guy or thing that will ultimately decide the series. It's the factor that everyone tends to overlook, but it is the single most important aspect of the series. If you ask me, the X-Factor in the Dallas-OKC series is simple. The X-Factor isn't a thing, but it is a person. One of the youngsters who probably doesn't even realize the gravity of the situation that he is in. That man is Serge Ibaka. Why you ask? Ah, it is simple really. We can all agree that Kevin Durant is going to get his 25-30 points a night. He is the 2x NBA scoring champ and one of the top 10, if not top 5, players in the league. He makes scoring look relatively easy and very rarely is he contained. Russell Westbrook is going to be up and down as usual. People forget that he is only in his second year as a pro and the growing pains that comes with that fact is no different for him than it was for the likes of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. The biggest difference is that Westbrook's growing pains have played out on the big screen in high pressure playoff series. Ultimately, Westbrook will have good games going against an aging Jason Kidd.
Looking at Dallas, you know that Jason Terry is going to give them his usual 15-20 points off the bench. That's his role and he plays it better than any other 6th man in the NBA, regardless of who won the award this year. Jason Kidd may be ancient in terms of the NBA wear and tear, but he will get open shots and will distribute the ball in ways that only he can. I also think that Tyson Chandler will have his way inside against Kendrick Perkins, who is obviously not 100% at this point in the playoffs. I know that Chandler's offensive game is limited, but has anyone been paying attention to the lack of lift that Perkins is getting when going for rebounds and shots? Chandler will deal with him with ease. So that leaves Dallas' MVP. The man that is the undisputed leader of that team, Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki will be most likely be guarded by Serge Ibaka. Nowitzki has about 2 inches in height on Ibaka, but Serge is extremely athletic and plays great defense. Which is why he is the X-Factor. If he is able to adequately play Dirk and make him work extremely hard to get his points, then OKC will win this series. If Dirk abuses Ibaka, then OKC should get ready for a short and disappointing end to their season. Nowitzki is going to get his 25-30 points, no question about it. But will it take him 30 shots to get it, or 15-20? That is the key to this series. Ibaka has his hands full, only time will tell if he is up to the task.
The Forecast
So who will win the series? Well, I don't see anyone on Dallas' team that can guard Russell Westbrook. Jason Kidd is too slow, and Jason Terry isn't exactly known for his lock-down defense. I am going to guess that Dallas will put Shawn Marion on Kevin Durant, which could be an interesting match-up. Marion is still very athletic. While not known as a defensive stopper, he could create problems for Durant due to his length and athletic ability. In the end, I think Westbrook is finally finding ways to get Durant the ball in spots that the scoring champ wants and needs it. I see Nowitzki having a difficult time getting off for big points in this series. All of that adds up to a Oklahoma City Thunder series victory in 6 games.
Weatha Alert
OKC was supposed to be a year or two away from being in this position. No one anticipated that this would be the year where they would be 4 wins away from playing for the NBA title. However, the timely demise of the Lakers and the overnight aging of the San Antonio Spurs has sped up the Thunder's development and timeline. I know the folks in Seattle are not as thrilled about this as the majority of basketball fans, but it is great for the NBA to have a great team developing in a small market like OKC. Add to that the fact that their star player, Kevin Durant, signed an extension with them and OKC could be the team that changes the landscape of the NBA. The days of star players needing to play in big markets might be changing. One thing is for sure, if Kevin Durant and OKC can beat the Dallas Mavericks then we could be in store for the small market boys beating one of the big market giants in June.
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