Back from vacation, and I must say it was needed. Welcome once again to another edition of Tha Weatha Report. I'll be your host for this adventure. For today's column we will finish up the debate on where Dirk Nowitzki falls when it comes to a few other players at his position. But first, let's hit The Hail Storm shall we?
Quick Hail Storm
1. David Haye was supposed to be the man to re-ignite the Heavyweight Division in boxing. Instead he was the man who effectively put the final nail in the division's coffin. Blaming the loss on a broken pinky toe? Pathetic.
2. I've never been a Yankees or Derek Jeter fan, but he gets much respect and credit for his upcoming 3,000 hit. It is an exclusive club, and I still can't believe no other Yankee has made it to that plateau.
3. Not excited about the MLB All-Star game. Seems like there are close to 80 players who get selected, drop out, and replaced in the game. One player from each team? Sad. Should be a showcase of the game's best, not a little league game where everyone has to play.
4. Michael Beasley still hasn't gotten it yet has he? Busted for (allegedly) having marijuana in his possession? Wake up Beasley. You have the chance to be a real force in this league and instead you're letting your talents literally go up in smoke.
Nowitzki Part Deux
For those of you new to this argument let me give you a quick back brief. This whole issue arose due to an ongoing debate I encountered with a few individuals who had the opinion that Dirk Nowitzki was the best power forward of all-time after he lead his Dallas Mavericks to the NBA title. I countered and offered the opinion that he could in no way be better than Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Tim Duncan, or Larry Bird. There were people who saw my point of view, and some who didn't. So I decided to dig up some numbers, and see if I could prove once and for all where Dirk Nowitzki fell amongst other power forwards in NBA history.
Now, I'm not saying that my opinion is fact or is 100% right. It is an OPINION. It is MINE and mine alone. I am going to present some numbers (gathered from www.basketball-reference.com) and you can form your own opinion. Feel free to check out part 1 of this debate in the archive section of Tha Weatha Report. Without further ado, let's dive into this debate and settle this once and for all.
Before getting into the actual numbers, let's discuss which categories I am going to use. I will also explain the columns so that everyone is on the same page.
MVP Shares = The MVP share number is calculated through a formula that is used to come up with a number that is supposed to give a likelihood of a player being selected to the Hall of Fame. The player with the #1 MVP share of all time is Michael Jordan with a 8.138 share.
Player Efficiency Rating = This number was created by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. Basically it sums up a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative "accomplishments", and returns a per minute rating of a player's performance. The player with the #1 PER is Michael Jordan with a rating of 27.91.
True Shooting Pct = This percentage is a measure of a player's shooting efficiency that takes field goals, 3 point field goals, and free throws into account.
Usage Pct = This percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the floor. Basically means how often a team relies on a player to put the ball in the basket.
Win Shares = This is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Obviously the higher the number, the more wins that player had a direct hand in. The all time leader in this category is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 273.41.
There are a ton of stats that anyone could use in this debate, these are the ones I am going with. Let's see what the numbers say.
In part 2 of this debate the players I will be using are Charles Barkley, Larry Bird, Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, and of course Dirk Nowitzki. These are all players who are thought of as power forwards and I feel that their numbers can be compared and contrasted.
MVP Shares
Barkley: 2.438
Bird: 5.693
Duncan: 4.205
K. Malone: 4.296
M. Malone: 2.873
Nowitzki: 1.801
Looking at the numbers we see that Larry Bird has the highest MVP share, followed by K. Malone, and Duncan. Moses Malone, Barkley, and Nowitzki bring up the rear. Not surprisingly, Larry Bird was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1998. All of the retired players on the list have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Only time will tell if Nowitzki will be, but as you can see his numbers are substantially lower than the others.
PER
Barkley: 24.6
Bird: 23.5
Duncan: 24.8
K. Malone: 23.9
M. Malone: 22.0
Nowitzki: 23.7
Looking at the efficiency numbers and we see that the players are relatively close in rating. Nowitzki clocks in at 4th ahead of Larry Bird and M. Malone. This was surprising to me as I didn't expect to see Dirk being more efficient than Larry Legend. Major props to Nowitzki for that as it shows that while he is on the floor that he values every possession. Being 4th in this category amongst this group is nothing to be ashamed of. Not surprisingly Tim Duncan aka The Big Fundamental tops this category. The man seems to always be effective when he's on the floor.
True Shooting Pct
Barkley: 61.2%
Bird: 56.5%
Duncan: 53.7%
K. Malone: 57.7%
M. Malone: 57.0%
Nowitzki: 58.3%
This was the category that I expected Dirk to shine. It is common knowledge that if nothing else, Nowitzki is one of the best shooters to ever touch a basketball. The man is nearly automatic from the free throw line, shoots a very high percentage from inside the arc, and behind the arc the man is a sniper. He places 2nd in this group in this category with Barkley having a higher percentage. Let's be honest here, being an overall 58% shooter is an amazing thing. Especially when you are factoring in free throws and 3s. I'll be perfectly candid and say that if the game is on the line and I needed one shot and I had to choose one of these players that I'm taking Nowitzki. The man has proven that he can put the ball in the hoop, and that is range starts when he enters the arena.
Usage Pct
Barkley: 24.8%
Bird: 26.5%
Duncan: 27.8%
K. Malone: 29.4%
M. Malone: 25.3%
Nowitzki: 27.0%
So, what do these numbers prove? That all of these players were relied on by their teams. With 5 players on the floor for a team, an average number would be 20% for each one. Each one of these guys are above that number, topping out with The Mailman at 29.4% Nowitzki's number is very high which shows that he does carry more than his weight for the Dallas Mavericks. This is a big factor as a star player is expected to be the go to man for his team. Not only does Nowitzki put the ball in the hoop at a high rate, but he does carry the team on his back. He came in 3rd in this category behind Karl Malone and Tim Duncan, two men who are well known for being the workhorses on their respective teams.
Win Shares
Barkley: 177.2
Bird: 145.8
Duncan: 170.0
K. Malone: 234.6
M. Malone: 179.2
Nowitzki: 161.3
This had to be the most surprising category for me. I expected higher numbers from Larry Bird. After doing more digging, the reason for the low number can be attributed to the fact that Bird had so much help around him. Kevin McHale (fellow Hall of Famer), Robert Parish (Hall of Famer), Dennis Johnson (you guessed it, Hall of Famer), etc. It's easier to spread the wealth around when you have so much talent. The Mailman had the highest number in this list and has the 3rd highest total in NBA history. It's important to remember that Malone had one other impact player on his team during his years in Utah, that being John Stockton. Nowitzki's numbers in this category is next to the lowest, only ahead of Larry Bird's. I will reserve placing too much judgement on this category for Nowitzki because he still has a few years left in his NBA career. However, it is important to note that at this point his numbers are lower than the others.
After looking at these numbers and comparing and contrasting, I think that it is clear that the numbers speak for themselves. Dirk Nowitzki is obviously a player that the Mavericks have always relied heavily on. He is a great shooter who carries his weight and has carried Dallas for his entire tenure. However, is he really the greatest power forward in NBA history? I think not. Please feel free to disagree. I love a good debate.
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