Back from vacation, and I must say it was needed. Welcome once again to another edition of Tha Weatha Report. I'll be your host for this adventure. For today's column we will finish up the debate on where Dirk Nowitzki falls when it comes to a few other players at his position. But first, let's hit The Hail Storm shall we?
Quick Hail Storm
1. David Haye was supposed to be the man to re-ignite the Heavyweight Division in boxing. Instead he was the man who effectively put the final nail in the division's coffin. Blaming the loss on a broken pinky toe? Pathetic.
2. I've never been a Yankees or Derek Jeter fan, but he gets much respect and credit for his upcoming 3,000 hit. It is an exclusive club, and I still can't believe no other Yankee has made it to that plateau.
3. Not excited about the MLB All-Star game. Seems like there are close to 80 players who get selected, drop out, and replaced in the game. One player from each team? Sad. Should be a showcase of the game's best, not a little league game where everyone has to play.
4. Michael Beasley still hasn't gotten it yet has he? Busted for (allegedly) having marijuana in his possession? Wake up Beasley. You have the chance to be a real force in this league and instead you're letting your talents literally go up in smoke.
Barkley: 2.438
Bird: 5.693
Duncan: 4.205
K. Malone: 4.296
M. Malone: 2.873
Nowitzki: 1.801
Looking at the numbers we see that Larry Bird has the highest MVP share, followed by K. Malone, and Duncan. Moses Malone, Barkley, and Nowitzki bring up the rear. Not surprisingly, Larry Bird was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1998. All of the retired players on the list have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Only time will tell if Nowitzki will be, but as you can see his numbers are substantially lower than the others.
Nowitzki Part Deux
For those of you new to this argument let me give you a quick back brief. This whole issue arose due to an ongoing debate I encountered with a few individuals who had the opinion that Dirk Nowitzki was the best power forward of all-time after he lead his Dallas Mavericks to the NBA title. I countered and offered the opinion that he could in no way be better than Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Tim Duncan, or Larry Bird. There were people who saw my point of view, and some who didn't. So I decided to dig up some numbers, and see if I could prove once and for all where Dirk Nowitzki fell amongst other power forwards in NBA history.
Now, I'm not saying that my opinion is fact or is 100% right. It is an OPINION. It is MINE and mine alone. I am going to present some numbers (gathered from www.basketball-reference.com) and you can form your own opinion. Feel free to check out part 1 of this debate in the archive section of Tha Weatha Report. Without further ado, let's dive into this debate and settle this once and for all.
Before getting into the actual numbers, let's discuss which categories I am going to use. I will also explain the columns so that everyone is on the same page.
MVP Shares = The MVP share number is calculated through a formula that is used to come up with a number that is supposed to give a likelihood of a player being selected to the Hall of Fame. The player with the #1 MVP share of all time is Michael Jordan with a 8.138 share.
Player Efficiency Rating = This number was created by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger. Basically it sums up a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative "accomplishments", and returns a per minute rating of a player's performance. The player with the #1 PER is Michael Jordan with a rating of 27.91.
True Shooting Pct = This percentage is a measure of a player's shooting efficiency that takes field goals, 3 point field goals, and free throws into account.
Usage Pct = This percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the floor. Basically means how often a team relies on a player to put the ball in the basket.
Win Shares = This is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. Obviously the higher the number, the more wins that player had a direct hand in. The all time leader in this category is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 273.41.
There are a ton of stats that anyone could use in this debate, these are the ones I am going with. Let's see what the numbers say.
In part 2 of this debate the players I will be using are Charles Barkley, Larry Bird, Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, and of course Dirk Nowitzki. These are all players who are thought of as power forwards and I feel that their numbers can be compared and contrasted.
MVP Shares
Barkley: 2.438
Bird: 5.693
Duncan: 4.205
K. Malone: 4.296
M. Malone: 2.873
Nowitzki: 1.801
Looking at the numbers we see that Larry Bird has the highest MVP share, followed by K. Malone, and Duncan. Moses Malone, Barkley, and Nowitzki bring up the rear. Not surprisingly, Larry Bird was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1998. All of the retired players on the list have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Only time will tell if Nowitzki will be, but as you can see his numbers are substantially lower than the others.
PER
Barkley: 24.6
Bird: 23.5
Duncan: 24.8
K. Malone: 23.9
M. Malone: 22.0
Nowitzki: 23.7
Looking at the efficiency numbers and we see that the players are relatively close in rating. Nowitzki clocks in at 4th ahead of Larry Bird and M. Malone. This was surprising to me as I didn't expect to see Dirk being more efficient than Larry Legend. Major props to Nowitzki for that as it shows that while he is on the floor that he values every possession. Being 4th in this category amongst this group is nothing to be ashamed of. Not surprisingly Tim Duncan aka The Big Fundamental tops this category. The man seems to always be effective when he's on the floor.
Bird: 23.5
Duncan: 24.8
K. Malone: 23.9
M. Malone: 22.0
Nowitzki: 23.7
Looking at the efficiency numbers and we see that the players are relatively close in rating. Nowitzki clocks in at 4th ahead of Larry Bird and M. Malone. This was surprising to me as I didn't expect to see Dirk being more efficient than Larry Legend. Major props to Nowitzki for that as it shows that while he is on the floor that he values every possession. Being 4th in this category amongst this group is nothing to be ashamed of. Not surprisingly Tim Duncan aka The Big Fundamental tops this category. The man seems to always be effective when he's on the floor.
True Shooting Pct
Barkley: 61.2%
Bird: 56.5%
Duncan: 53.7%
K. Malone: 57.7%
M. Malone: 57.0%
Nowitzki: 58.3%
This was the category that I expected Dirk to shine. It is common knowledge that if nothing else, Nowitzki is one of the best shooters to ever touch a basketball. The man is nearly automatic from the free throw line, shoots a very high percentage from inside the arc, and behind the arc the man is a sniper. He places 2nd in this group in this category with Barkley having a higher percentage. Let's be honest here, being an overall 58% shooter is an amazing thing. Especially when you are factoring in free throws and 3s. I'll be perfectly candid and say that if the game is on the line and I needed one shot and I had to choose one of these players that I'm taking Nowitzki. The man has proven that he can put the ball in the hoop, and that is range starts when he enters the arena.
Usage Pct
Barkley: 24.8%
Bird: 26.5%
Duncan: 27.8%
K. Malone: 29.4%
M. Malone: 25.3%
Nowitzki: 27.0%
So, what do these numbers prove? That all of these players were relied on by their teams. With 5 players on the floor for a team, an average number would be 20% for each one. Each one of these guys are above that number, topping out with The Mailman at 29.4% Nowitzki's number is very high which shows that he does carry more than his weight for the Dallas Mavericks. This is a big factor as a star player is expected to be the go to man for his team. Not only does Nowitzki put the ball in the hoop at a high rate, but he does carry the team on his back. He came in 3rd in this category behind Karl Malone and Tim Duncan, two men who are well known for being the workhorses on their respective teams.
Win Shares
Barkley: 177.2
Bird: 145.8
Duncan: 170.0
K. Malone: 234.6
M. Malone: 179.2
Nowitzki: 161.3
This had to be the most surprising category for me. I expected higher numbers from Larry Bird. After doing more digging, the reason for the low number can be attributed to the fact that Bird had so much help around him. Kevin McHale (fellow Hall of Famer), Robert Parish (Hall of Famer), Dennis Johnson (you guessed it, Hall of Famer), etc. It's easier to spread the wealth around when you have so much talent. The Mailman had the highest number in this list and has the 3rd highest total in NBA history. It's important to remember that Malone had one other impact player on his team during his years in Utah, that being John Stockton. Nowitzki's numbers in this category is next to the lowest, only ahead of Larry Bird's. I will reserve placing too much judgement on this category for Nowitzki because he still has a few years left in his NBA career. However, it is important to note that at this point his numbers are lower than the others.
After looking at these numbers and comparing and contrasting, I think that it is clear that the numbers speak for themselves. Dirk Nowitzki is obviously a player that the Mavericks have always relied heavily on. He is a great shooter who carries his weight and has carried Dallas for his entire tenure. However, is he really the greatest power forward in NBA history? I think not. Please feel free to disagree. I love a good debate.
Thanks for reading this edition, and continue to support the column and website. Please take the time to "like" the website on Facebook. Thanks and be on the lookout for the next Tha Weatha Report. Until next time, Tha Weatha Man is signing out.
Numbers don't lie. Dirk has been the recipient of great failure and success to an infinitely overblown portion. In 2006 his "team" lost it. And in 2011 his "team" won it! Basketball is a team game. Period. Now karl malone was a beast, but take stockton off his team and he is dropping in all of those categories. But the same can be said about all the other players that had hall of fame teamates, but when malones was one of the greatest PG's of all time, that needs to be accounted for.
ReplyDeleteGood work. I liked it. But stop hatin on the best white guy in a black mans game! LMAO!!
Ps that was a lot of damn registration to post on here, I almost canceled it.
ReplyDeleteI was convinced from the first post. He has been in the game long enough to be the best power forward. One NBA championship doesn't make someone the best at anything, just a winner of the game.
ReplyDeleteLOL@Birtcil. I won't hate anymore lol. Being real, I think Nowitzki is a good player. He outplayed LeBron in that series. I think D. Wade matched him, but Wade's team didn't rise to the occasion. Malone would've been nothing without Stockton, agreed. Although I honestly think that if he had a competent PG who could pass he would've still put up great numbers. Especially b/c all they did was run that pick-n-roll to death. Appreciate the feedback though.
ReplyDeleteMy 2 cents....Orin Romain
ReplyDeleteI'll start off with these numbers....
Most Points Per 4th Quarter
NBA Finals Past 20 Seasons
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3
1993 Michael Jordan 10.3
>> From Elias Sports Bureau
(No Malone or Barkley on that list)
He managed to score the same number of 4th quarter points these finals as Lebron and Wade, combined (62)
The players who have averaged 25 points, 10 rebounds in playoffs over a minimum of 8 games; Elgin Baylor, Bob Petit, Hakeem Olajuwon, Dirk
Players who have averaged 21 points and 7 rebounds over 11 consecutive years; Jabbar, Malone, Shaquille, Olajuwon, Dirk
Kareem, Bird, Kobe, Wilt, Duncan, Magic, MJ, Moses, Hakeem, Shaq, and Dirk - These eleven players have won at least one regular season MVP, one Finals MVP, and made at least ten All-Star appearances.
First, pretty sure I'm in the category of calling Dirk and all-timer, but I know I never called him the best of all-time. Your last post talked about Dirk as a top 2, and I've said from the jump I don't see him as a better forward than Bird or Duncan. He's probably not even be better than Elvin Hayes. I see him above Barkley, and both Malones. I hesitate to classify Bird in this group because, despite his size, Bird was a true 3 or 4. He did a little of both. That being said, I never said Dirk was "the best of all time". And, your original argument was "By no means am I saying that Dirk Nowitzki is not a great scorer. On the contrary, I think he is one of the great scorers in the NBA today. However, when we say great player, I want to see someone who does everything at a high level" and you cited, but didn't really work to prove he had defensive and rebounding problems. See...that's the problem when people criticize Dirk. Everyone wants to call him soft, but no one was give specific instances or cites specific facts that show otherwise. I understand it's your opinion that Dirk can't rebound and he's soft, or he's a liability on defense, but just simply stating that isn't enough. Barkley never made an all-defensive team, nor was he ever really applauded for his defensive efforts. People look at his scoring, and rebounding, and overlook the fact that, regardless of his height, he was a marginal defender, at best. But he gets a pass? Why?
ReplyDelete"If you accept the expectations of others, especially negative ones, then you never will change the outcome." Michael
ReplyDeleteJordan
People want to put Dirk in this little box....since he's a 7 footer, he's supposed to pull down 14 a boards a game, and block 3 shots a game like Dwight. Why can't Dirk just be Dirk? There's plenty of athletes, major, all-time athletes that did just one thing well......some still around now....Deion Sanders couldn't tackle...does that make him less great of a corner? Emmitt Smith would rather run out of bounds than take a bit hit close to a sideline. Does that less tough attitude make him lesser of a running back? "I can score 20 points if I want to, but that's not my desire." Dennis Rodman.....Rodman was a double double guy his first few years in the league in Detroit. He realized his importance would come more on the defensive end and rebounding than any where else. Does that make him less great? Tim Duncan and Shaq can't shoot free throws well. Wilt Chamberlain never fouled out of a game...does that make him less tough? Phil Neikro won 300 games in his career throwing a knuckle ball....his legacy tarnished too? Jerome Bettis didn't have break away speed. In his later years, when all Barry Bonds was doing was smacking homeruns and walking, he was doing only that. He was a sub par defender, lacked speed on the basepaths (despite whether or not you think he was juicing)....he was a one dimensional player. Edgar MartÃnez, George Brett, Carl Yastrzemski, and Paul Molitor were great DH's...and 3 of them are in the Hall of Fame. So what if a guy can't do something. The best of the best can do it all...Jordan....that's why they are the best....but there's plenty of people who can do one thing really well, and are called an all-time great for it. Excluding a guy (I don't think you're right about the reasons for exclusion either) because he can't do everything well is a bit narrow minded.
I can show you some numbers....Dirk, in his career, has 8315 rebounds, and averages about 77 games a season (which is a pretty good argument about his toughness and durability, something that Karl Malone was lauded for, but never gets tossed Dirk's way). He averages per season about 8.4 a game. Take 8.4 x 77. That's 647 (I rounded up) rebounds a year. I'll give Dirk 4 more years of quality basketball. 647 x 4, that gives you 2587 rebounds over the next 4 years...giving him a grand total, at that point, of 10,902 rebounds. That would place him 28th all-time....a few spots ahead of David Robinson. For a guy to average 8.4 rebounds for a career, not shabby. I can name you a slew of 7 footers who couldn't pull down 6 rebounds a game in the same minutes that Dirk has. Playoffs, Dirk is @ 10.5 a game.
ReplyDeleteSay for the next 4 years, he plays an average of 5 playoff games a year, that would give him almost 1500 in his career, (1489 to be exact), which would put him 15th all-time. For a guy who doesn't rebound well, he certainly pulls down a lot of them. I mean, between regular season and playoffs...that's 12,000 boards. You still say this guy can't rebound? He'll never be an elite level guy like a Dwight....but....nah....I'll just let the numbers speak for themselves on that one.
Oh, Dirk has 22,792 points in his career. He's on pace to score just under 30,000 in his career. You know how many guys have scored over 27000? 8...and Dirk is on pace to break that. Now, he could get hurt...and all the paces he's on with be for nothing....but to be in range of numbers like this.....this kind of productivity doesn't happen to everyone.
In regards to his defense.....maybe one of the biggest myths around....I bring this article to your attention
ReplyDeletehttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Uzqv4gkki_8J:www.nba.com/hoop/lowpost/dirk_nowitzki_is__great_defen_2011_05_10.html+dirk+is+a+great+defender+howerton&hl=en&client=firefox-a&gl=us&strip=1
(I'll cite some stuff for you)
He slowed down LaMarcus Aldridge in the first round. He stifled the Laker power forwards--Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom--in Round 2.
He made his team's defense 2.8 points per 48 minutes better in 2010-11 in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus.
He's ranks second this season among power forwards only to Kevin Garnett in defensive Victory Value, when you combine defensive RAPM with minutes played.
And it's not just because he's playing alongside All-Defensive center Tyson Chandler this year.
In the last four seasons, Dirk maintains the same 2.8 defensive RAPM and ranks fourth among power forwards in defensive Victory Value--trailing only Odom, Kevin Garnett and Josh Smith--when you combine defensive RAPM with minutes played.
Dirk is also ninth on the defensive win shares active list for players at any position.
Look at the 2011 NBA Playoff results again. It shouldn't be surprising to see Dirk excel on D.
Aldridge saw his scoring and rebounding averages drop from 22 & 9 to 21 & 8 despite the fact he played three more minutes per game (43.0). His true shooting percentage also dropped from .549 to .498, while his plus-minus in the Mavs-Blazers series was -51.
Dirk was a +50 in the series.
Same held true in the Mavs-Lakers Series. Gasol saw his numbers drop--from 19 & 10 in 37 minutes per game to 13 & 9 in 36 mpg against the Mavs. His true shooting percentage dropped from .589 to .476 and his plus-minus was a -22. Odom dropped from 14 & 9 in 32 mpg in the season to 12 & 7 in 32 mpg in the series. His true shooting percentage dropped from .589 to .498 and his plus-minus was -24.
Meanwhile, Dirk was a +67 in the Lakers series.
and this website....(this is the site where the previous article got the plus/minus, win shares. It also includes a really good stat...a teams shooting percetage with and without a player on the floor. the last 4 years, dallas is a worse defensive, and defensive rebounding team with dirk off the floor. they do get more offensive rebounds, but that's because more shots are missed.in particular, this year, the mavs were -3 with dirk off the floor. that doesn't sound like much, but this is a team that was 12-4 in games decided by 5 points or less...so that stat holds up, quite a bit)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.82games.com/index.htm
Secondly, I'm glad you got off what we like to call "Wiki stats" and moved to some with a bit more substance. Simply listing a person's accomplishments based on a bio page gives you the ability to skew any argument you want in your favor. Pro baskebtball reference is a great site, with a lot of great stats. Unfortunately, you only focused on the ones pertaining to "regular season". Why not focus on the playoffs? You know Jordan had a higher PER in the playoffs than regular season?
Michael Jordan 28.59
And, you wanna compare Bird, Malone Karl and Moses, Barkley, Dirk and Duncan, why not look at the playoffs too?
Tim Duncan 25.43
Dirk Nowitzki 24.75
Charles Barkley 24.18
Larry Bird 21.41
Moses Malone 21.40
Karl Malone 21.12
Seems to me that during this crucial stretch, Dirk seems to have the edge on every guy, except Duncan, who I called better than Dirk.
True Shooting Percentage in the Playoffs (I'll only compare Barkley and Dirk, because Barkley was the only guy higher than him during the regular season)
ReplyDeleteDirk Nowitzki .5844
Barkley .5839
You know what this tells me? When an opposing defense decides to focus on a star, Dirk still shoots at a high percentage, and Barkley's drops 3%.
I'm not going to worry about usage percentage, because, when the playoffs come around, it's about the star, so this stat is almost moot during.
Win Shares (numbers are little lower for playoffs, because it's not based on 82 games)
Tim Duncan 28.84
Larry Bird 24.83
Karl Malone 22.99
Dirk Nowitzki 22.08
Charles Barkley 19.52
Moses Malone 13.67
I will reserve the right not to judge, and Dirk is lower, but let's be honest.....in 3 years, that list will read Duncan, Bird, Dirk.
And, to look even deeper into your regular season numbers.....Moses Malone title team in Philly was one of the greatest talent teams ever assembled.....ever. You had 2 first team all-nba'ers/hall of famers in your starting lineup, along with a six man of the year, 3 guys on the all-defensive team. That team won 65 games that year. It was the equivalent of this year's Heat team. And, they didn't have to play the Celtics, or a full strength Lakers team in the finals that year (lakers were missing McAdoo and Worthy in the Finals). This is the same Philly team that made it to the finals the year before with Dawkins, rather than Malone. You swapped out an older model with a younger Malone, and you win one.
No reason why they shoudn't have won 2 more titles, with Dr J in his prime, and a young, hungry Moses....but this team never so much as even sniffed the finals again with Malone, nor did he ever beat the Celtics in his career in the playoffs.
Here's a few more playoff stats, just for fun.......Karl Malone averages 10.68 rebounds in the playoffs...Dirk averages 10.5, which is ahead of Ewing, Bird, and Rodman.
ReplyDeleteIn his playoff career, he's got 1289 playoff rebounds, 6 behind Moses Malone, and also more than McHale, Dave Cowens (who's in the hall because of his rebounding and defensive abilities) and McHale.
Difference between regular season and playoffs....Lebron wins regular season MVP's and his team finishes with the best regular season record. Derrick Rose wins regular season MVP's and his team finished with the best record. Barkley and Malone win regular season MVP's and their teams make it to the finals those years.....
Bird, Isiah, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Magic, Hayes.....these guys win finals MVP's and titles.
Also, you cited the MVP shares list.....I stopped looking past number 27, because the player either had an asterisk next to their name for being in the hall of fame, or it's just a forgone conclusion that they'll be in the hall. Seriously, look at that list...If you want to use it to say that Dirk had a lower number than the Malones, Bird, Duncan, whomever, ok. But don't look at that list and think that Dirk isn't going to make it to Hall because he's behind those guys. My word....I got down to the 36th name on that list before I saw someone that wasn't making the Hall.
I heard Michael Wilbon a few weeks ago on the radio say something about "maintaining perspective" when looking at these finals. We as humans tend to be about the now, the next biggest fad, the next best thing...we're always looking to put something new up on a pedestal. He mentioned about forgetting past greatness. In some way I agree. The only footage of Elvin Hayes I've seen is courtesy of ESPN classic, so older players don't resonate with me as much...but then I thought...when I think about Malone and Barkley....and perspective, and greatness....there's good moments in their careers I can remember. And there's bad moments too. But not any great ones. And, with their being no great ones, I tend to remember the bad more than the good with them. Barkley being called lazy....losing home court in 93 to the bulls...malone being told mailman doesn't deliver on sundays by pippen, him missing free throws, then Jordan sinking a game winner.
ReplyDeleteI think about Dirk these playoffs, having home court in only series, being an underdog, having to come back from double digit 2nd half deficits, how he had his Mavs team ran through 7 guys on the all-nba teams this year. I remember that because it just happened. I'll remember it after because it was great.
Barkley said it best.....“Listen, Dirk is one of the greatest players. He already was before this year. But unless he wins a championship, he’s going to be on the same list with me. And until LeBron wins, he’s going to be on the list with me. These guys are both–Jason Kidd also–all three of these guys are Hall of Famers; they’re legends. But until you win a championship, you got to stay on the list with me and Karl [Malone] and Patrick Ewing and John Stockton, all those guys. That’s just the way it is.”
After reading an astonishing 8 (extremely long) "comments" from Orin, I have two things to say. First, Orin if you're gonna pen a novel down in the comments section give us a heads up because I had not planned on that the reading of the comments section would be taking up an hour of my day. Second, All things being relatively similar between Barkley and Dirk (and the playoff numbers count more for me personally), I think the championship puts him above Barkley. Between Dirk and Karl Malone, I think without Stockton, Malone's numbers would be slightly deflated, so once again the championship pushes Dirk him ahead, for me. I'd rank it Duncan then Dirk in order of best PF's of all time. If that doesn't convince you, DeWon, I can bring the new NBA JAM to the reunion and beat you with him if that would help.
ReplyDeleteLOL, I just read these comments. Honestly I didn't read the novel. It's late, I'll read it tomorrow. However, I do respect the opinions and comments. Dirk winning a title is a big deal. I don't want it to seem that I don't think so. I think the title put Dirk in an elevated state among all players, not just PFs. However, I do not think he ranks as a top 2 or 3 PF. Now, granted, this depends on whether or not you believe Larry Bird is a true PF. Some do, some don't. I think he was. I also think that he was Dirk Nowitzki before Dirk was Dirk. If that makes any sense. A guy with height that could take his man out to the perimeter and kill the opposing teams. To me, he did it better not just b/c he was the original but b/c he won more. That's just me. Malone had Stockton this is true. Dirk has played with Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. Kidd is still better than most PGs at his "old" age, and Nash was damn near in his prime when he played with Dirk. That argument is canceled out if you ask me. Malone still had to put the ball in the basket regardless of who was giving it to him. Chris Paul is a great, GREAT, PG and yet no one on his team can be considered on his level. Just b/c a PG is good or great doesn't necessarily mean that it brings someone else to that level. Duncan is obviously better, I think we all agree there. So, after hindsight I'll agree to put Duncan, Malone, and Bird ahead of Dirk. That's about as good as it gets from me lol.
ReplyDelete